Forget what the pundits saying. These guys don't have the capacity to take a step back and look at the long term trends of the market. They're too focused on "breaking news" that almost always has a short and unsustainable effect of stock prices. To beat the market, we have to look at long term trends that we can play. We have to anticipate market moves. The only way to do that is to look at long term patterns.
If we do take a step back and look at the S&P 500 we see a very strong bullish chart for week.
We can see that about a week into every rally in the past three months, there has been a short market breather before increased gains. We have hit that stall. Wait a couple days, and the S&P will be back in the green. As the resistance trend shows, it will top 1,100 test at around 1,115. That's when we should get very bearish. The obvious reason being that the 500 have consistently tested that resistance line, and the index has consistently failed.
Let's zoom out.
There is no reason to expect the S&P to break resistance at 1,100 for more that a very short time. We have seen in the past, that when faced with a macro resistance level, the S&P first corrects downward (circled), and then snaps back up and through the resistance line. If, after the current rally, the S&P fails to bounce off the support I illustrated in the 3 month chart, I would make the call to stay short and wait for the correction.
Good Luck,
Samba
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